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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However the latest competition is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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